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garret_labНекоторые ответы техасцев на вопрос "А вы за кого голосовать собираетесь?":
- Trump, to save America.
- Trump/Pence
- I'll choose the lesser of two evils... Nobody associated with Beto...
- I am a GOD Fearing and Believing Firm United States Constitutionalist , Devoted Capitalist Business Owner, Veteran of and Staunch Supporter of The United States Military, I Believe in the Sovereignty of the Borders of Our Nation, I am A Believer and Lifelong Student of the Glorious and ACTUAL ,FACTUAL HISTORY of OUR NATION and STATE ! The RADICAL , FACTIONS of and Fractions/Splinters of what was FORMERLY the Democratic Party and now using names such as Antifa, The Squad or Crew or name of the week, or the Deplorably Exploitive BLM as a thin veil for Violent , Reprehensible, Extremism Destruction of Our/MY Country ! It is TRAGIC that so many Young People have been filled with disinformation and Failed , Never to Succeed Ideologies that they Cannot Appreciate and Enjoy the Greatest Country, Government and Society in the History of Man! May GOD Have Mercy on You
- Drain the swamp. Vote Trump!
- Trump and Pence of course.
- Trump/Pence enthusiastically.
- Trump/Pence. Anyone who lives in the USA and wants life, liberty and the pursuit of happiness in the current environment must vote Trump/Pence
- THE PRESIDENT
- I should have know it would be the Democratic Party bothering people by texting their phones...... TRUMP TRAIN ALL THE WAY!!!!!!!
- All red, President Trump is the man!! 2020
- Trump I don't want Texas like California
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Date: 2020-08-22 10:06 pm (UTC)no subject
Date: 2020-08-22 11:11 pm (UTC)no subject
Date: 2020-08-22 10:34 pm (UTC)Классический ответ: "Ну и дурак!" :-) Сорри :-)
Борис, но справедливости ради, демократические избиратели ведь Вам тоже отвечают? Или удручающе меньше, чем вот этих вот?
PS. Вдохновившись Вашим постом, пошел гуглить пословицу "Дурака учить только портить". Вторая же ссылка -- вопрос на форуме:
"...Объясните мне смысл пословицы " Дурака учить - только портить"..."
Какая изумительная рекурсия :-))))
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Date: 2020-08-22 11:27 pm (UTC)Статистику я не веду (поскольку номера телефонов нам неизвестны, то даже район опроса невозможно определить), но по ощущениям расклад примерно такой:
60% ответов (с использованием разных вариаций мата и других выразительных средств английского языка) -- это "прекратите слать мне ваши тексты", "не твоё собачье дело", и "я не голосую";
30% ответов от трампистов (матерная лексика слегка приглушена);
10% ответов, обычно чрезвычайно деловых, от "синих".
Но тут следует заметить, что примерно 90% от посланной тысячи (это стандартная пачка) начальных SMS ответа вообще не получают никакого. С 11:00 до 20:00 (разрешённый диапазон для рассылки политических SMS в Техасе, насколько я понимаю) в добрый день удаётся послать около 10,000 начальных сообщений и обработать полученные ответы.
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Date: 2020-08-24 02:55 am (UTC)https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2020-election-forecast/texas
https://electoral-vote.com/evp2020/Pres/Graphs/texas.html
https://www.electoral-vote.com/evp2020/Pres/pres_polls.html
Видимо, Вам действительно достался "красный" area code. Или подмножество техасских владельцев мобильных телефонов существенно перекошено в красную сторону по сравнению со средним техасцем :-) Или же модели техасского электората у профессиональных опросников крайне неадекватны, что вряд ли -- специалисты все-таки...
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Date: 2020-08-24 02:25 pm (UTC)Теорий на тему "кто именно отвечает на наши тексты" построить и проверить мы не можем, поскольку это требует обстоятельных телефонных бесед как с теми, кто отвечает, так и с остальными (что, вообще говоря, уже являет собой противоречие). На коленке я смастерил объяснения (для самого себя) перекоса ответов в сторону трампистов примерно такие: отвечают пожилые в основном люди; текстов к ним приходит мало; хотят контролировать потоки входящих-исходящих; опасаются, что телефон переполнится текстами SMS; упоминание Бето (которое было раньше в начальном сообщении, а потом его убрали) вводит их в неконтролируемую ярость; ещё не научились просто не обращать внимания на SMS.
Техас мы, разумеется, продуем. Но разрыв в 5 процентных пунктов я бы посчитал выдающимся успехом (в 2016 было 9), а в 7 -- неплохим в целом результатом. Тут направление изменений важнее их скорости.
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Date: 2020-08-25 04:07 am (UTC)За Техас! :-)
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vfeL-yBMGvU
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Date: 2020-08-25 02:09 pm (UTC)При таком усечённом подходе никакие модели вообще не нужны -- это схема типа "Гербалайф" (или "сетевого маркетинга"), то есть обычная "пирамида", но без денег...
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Date: 2020-08-24 02:26 pm (UTC)no subject
Date: 2020-08-25 03:58 am (UTC)Не уверен, делаются ли поправки на то, что отвечающие на опрос люди отличаются от среднестатистических. Скажем, сдвиг в электоральных предпочтениях среднестатистических черных мужчин с высшим образованием, ответивших на опрос, относительно среденстатистических черных мужчин с высшим образованием в целом по стране. Может, у наиболее продвинутых аналитиков типо Ната Сильвера и есть такие модели. Но у большинства поллстеров, думаю, нет.
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Date: 2020-08-25 04:30 am (UTC)no subject
Date: 2020-08-23 12:22 am (UTC)New documents uncovered by the Center for Media and Democracy show that the billionaire Koch brothers have developed detailed personality profiles on 89 percent of the U.S. population; and are using those profiles to launch an unprecedented private propaganda offensive to advance Republican candidates in the 2018 midterms.
The documents also show that the Kochs have developed persuasion models — like their "Heroin Model" and "Heroin Treatment Model" — that target voters with tailored messaging on select issues, and partner with cable and satellite TV providers to play those tailored messages during “regular” television broadcasts.
Over the last decade, big data and microtargeting have revolutionized political communications. And the Kochs, who are collectively worth $120 billion, now stand at the forefront of that revolution — investing billions in data aggregation, machine learning, software engineering and Artificial Intelligence optimization.
In modern elections, incorporating AI into voter file maintenance has become a prerequisite to producing reliable data. The Kochs’ political data firm, i360 states that it has “been practicing AI for years. Our team of data scientists uses components of Machine learning, Deep Learning and Predictive Analytics, every day as they build and refine our predictive models.”
Thanks to that investment (and the Supreme Court’s campaign finance rulings that opened the floodgates for super PACs), the Koch network is better positioned than either the Democratic Party or the GOP to reach voters with their individually tailored communications.
https://www.salon.com/2018/11/05/koch-brothers-are-watching-you-and-new-documents-expose-how-much-they-know/
Для кампании в Техасе Тед Круз раскрутил свою компанию, WPAi, которая ныне участвует в выборах по всей стране: https://wpaintel.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/02/WPAi_CPAC-Presentation_vCSW_novideo_190228.pdf
Занимательный рассказ о том, как i360 и WPAi, в тесной координации с NRA и другими организациями, завязанными на CNP, участвовали в выборах 2018:
An investigation by Mother Jones revealed that the NRA appeared “to have illegally coordinated its political advertising with Republican candidates in at least three recent high-profile US Senate races,” in “apparent violation of laws designed to prevent independent groups from synchronizing their efforts with political campaigns.” In Claire McCaskill’s Missouri Senate race, for example, the NRA “flooded local TV stations with ads supportive of Hawley in the month before the election.”
But synchronization was the name of the game, and i360 was the key. Its Federal Election Commission filing listed 884 clients from 2017 to 2018, including the NRA, the Susan B. Anthony List PAC, and Americans for Prosperity, as well as the Republican Parties of Wisconsin and Virginia, the National Republican Senatorial Committee, and myriad Republican candidates at every level. Its capacity for data collection was extraordinary. Besides the usual voter files, i360 tracked voters’ marital status, interest in diet and weight loss and cholesterol levels, preference for internet ads or outdoor ads, hearing difficulty, home equity, and household monthly expendable income, in addition to a category labeled “Bible.” When the various canvassers bearing their smartphones and iPads knocked on the door, their devices gave them an excellent idea of who would answer, and offered a tailored script. <...>
In Texas, Beto O’Rourke’s campaign was trying a new app called Polis. But it was competing with Ted Cruz’s mature digital and field operations, run by Chris Wilson and WPAi in coordination with uCampaign and Cambridge Analytica.
The fundamentalists rallied their own grassroots army on multiple media platforms. On Sunday, November 4—two days before the election—Tony Perkins cohosted a preelection television marathon called The Event, carried on cable television and a Facebook feed. The Event was sponsored by the Truth & Liberty Coalition, and included CNP members Tony Perkins, W. Jackson, and Kristan Hawkins among its six featured guests. The program’s website included resources from the Family Resource Council, including the iVoter Guide and materials for church Culture Impact Teams. There were also links to a Whitehouse.gov page titled “Trump’s Accomplishments” and another to a site selling a DVD called Politics: Easy as P.I.E. by CNP executive director Bob McEwen. The cosponsors included an array of CNP partner organizations, among them the Family Research Council, the American Family Association, Alliance Defending Freedom, and Students for Life of America. United in Purpose and My Faith Votes were additional sponsors, as were various Baptist and other churches.
At the Values Voter Summit, the experts had warned their listeners that the Democrats would need to win twenty-three seats to flip the House. They won forty.
I streamed The Event from my perch for the midterm elections in Dallas. A few days earlier I had attended a Cruz rally in Fort Worth, standing next to supporters who called Democrats “demons” and described O’Rourke as “the son of Satan.”
https://lithub.com/inside-the-republican-partys-last-ditch-scramble-to-save-their-house-majority/
Когда избиратель несет горячечный бред про страшную Антифу и "ACTUAL ,FACTUAL HISTORY of OUR NATION", он повторяет заранее кем-то прожеванное зомбопослание: "America has been rocked this year by violent protests sponsored by Black Lives Matter and propelled by Antifa. Much of the media has painted the protests as spontaneous demonstrations arising from the killing of George Floyd. But many signs point to a deeper, more sinister agenda behind these organizations." https://www.valuesvotersummit.org/schedule
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Date: 2020-08-23 01:44 am (UTC)no subject
Date: 2020-08-23 01:41 pm (UTC)Как и многие другие, я наивно думал, что братья Кохи и их сообщники вкладывают деньги в политику из простых коммерческих соображений, чтобы снизить налоги и регуляции для их бизнеса. Нет, эти люди - ебанутые и точно знают, какое общество строят, хотя прямо и не говорят об этом. Между книжками вроде "Shadow Network" и "Democracy in Chains" многое проясняется.
There’s been brilliant work by journalists, really good digging on the money trail and the Koch operations, but much of that writing seems to assume that he is doing this just because it’s going to lower his tax bill or because he wants to evade regulations, personally. I think that really misgauges the man. He is deeply ideological and has been reading almost fanatically for a very long time. I see him as someone who’s quite messianic. He’s compared himself to Martin Luther and his effort being like the Protestant Reformation. When he invested in Buchanan’s center at George Mason University, he said he wanted to “unleash the kind of force that propelled Columbus.”
This is not someone who’s just trying to lower his tax bill. He wants to bring in a totally new vision of society and government, that’s different from anything that exists anywhere in the world or has existed because he is so certain that he is right. I think it’s more chilling because it doesn’t correspond to the ideas we have about politics.
https://slate.com/human-interest/2017/06/james-mcgill-buchanans-terrifying-vision-of-society-is-the-intellectual-basis-of-the-far-right.html
Трамп не был выращен в пробирке, подобно Крузу, но оказался еще лучше, потому что породил культ, за которым можно прятаться. На его второй срок у заговорщиков большие планы.
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Date: 2020-08-23 01:52 pm (UTC)В США само-название ебанутых -- "либертарианец" ("... 1980, when David Koch was the Libertarian Party's vice-presidential nominee ..."). ЛДПР, подкреплённая немалыми деньгами...
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Date: 2020-08-23 05:04 pm (UTC)no subject
Date: 2020-08-24 02:34 pm (UTC)